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After a 5-2 start in Week 1, each of the past two weeks, these picks have gone 2-5. We actually got off to a great start with the Browns and Ravens both covering, but after that, it was all downhill, including the Lions and Vikings scoring exactly 52 points when we took the over on 52.5.
Because of that, we’ve now dipped below .500 and are looking to get back on track. The Week 4 NFL slate looks promising, and unlike last week, the primetime games should be great matchups. Before we get into the Week 4 NFL picks, here’s a look back to Week 3:
- Browns -4 (W)
- Ravens -3 (W)
- Bills -6 (L)
- Bills/Dolphins O52.5 (L)
- Vikings -6 (L)
- Lions/Vikings O52.5 (L)
- Buccaneers ML (L)
Season Record: 9-12
Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -4
- Dolphins ML: +175
- Bengals ML: -205
- O/U: 47 points
Frey’s Pick: Bengals -4
The Bengals finally got an opportunity to beat an inferior New York Jets team, and the Miami Dolphins are coming off an emotional, hard-fought victory over the Buffalo Bills. Coming off a short week, the Dolphins may have a tough time regrouping after their big win, especially having to play on the road.https://ee39a4d362f2f8db95a8abaa5c09747d.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html
Meanwhile the Bengals were able to cruise to a win on Sunday, and they get to debut their white helmets on Thursday. This is an all-time uniform matchup, but the Bengals come out on top.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints*
- Spread: Vikings -3
- Vikings ML: -145
- Saints ML: +125
- O/U: 43 points
Frey’s Picks: Vikings -3, U43 points
Don’t forget to set your alarms, Vikings fans. The Saints and Vikings traveled to London this week and face off bright and early on Sunday morning. Both teams are going into this game a little banged up, with Jameis Winston missing practice on Wednesday, and Za’Darius Smith wearing a sleeve on his knee after going down in the Lions game.
This may sound strange, but the Saints may be a bigger threat to the Vikings in this game if they start Andy Dalton rather than Winston. Over the first three games, Winston has been quite inaccurate with his passes, especially downfield. Either way, the Vikings should come out on top. That said, points may come at a premium with how strong the Saints are defensively. I’m taking the Vikings and the under.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Bills -3
- Bills ML: -155
- Ravens ML: +135
- O/U: 51.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Ravens +3
We talked about the Bills and Dolphins game already, but both teams might be negatively impacted by that game going into this weekend. Baltimore had a relatively easy win against the New England Patriots, and Lamar Jackson continues to dominate both as a passer and runner.
Both teams have gone through injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Micah Hyde is out for the year for Buffalo, and Baltimore has a litany of players out in their secondary. That said, the home team will prevail on Sunday.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -2.5
- Broncos ML: +125
- Raiders ML: -145
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Picks: Raiders -2.5, U45.5 points
If anyone has watched this Denver Broncos offense over the past few weeks, I don’t know how it’s possible to feel comfortable taking their side. Denver has scored the second fewest points in the NFL through three weeks, and their red zone offense is absolutely atrocious. They’ve scored just 14.3% of their possible points on red zone drives, far below anyone else in the league.
Las Vegas has gotten off to an 0-3 start this season, but that seems mostly a case of them facing a difficult schedule more than anything else. They will be motivated against a division rival to get things back on track this weekend.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -1
- Rams ML: +100
- 49ers ML: -120
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Rams ML
The Super Bowl champs have gotten back on track after taking a shellacking against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1. The Rams won each of their last two games, and the most promising thing is that they have won in multiple different ways. Against the Falcons, they rode the strength of their offense, and against the Cardinals, their defense shut down Arizona’s offense.
The 49ers offense has struggled early in the season without Elijah Mitchell. Going back to last season, they’ve scored 25+ points in just three of the past seven games that Jimmy Garoppolo has started. The Rams should be able to take care of business this week.
*: Game takes place in London
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho with a bachelor’s degree in Creative Writing as well as minors in History, Human Biology, and Journalism. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh can often be found training for a marathon, playing video games, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. For more of his takes, NFL and otherwise, check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken