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The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 5


The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 5
Oct 2, 2022; London, United Kingdom; Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 5 against the Chicago Bears.

FiveThirty Eight = 76%

Change from Last Week = +9.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com

FiveThirtyEight decided after the Vikings win over the New Orleans Saints that Minnesota was the 13th-best team in football with the 7th most-likely odds to reach the playoffs.

The Vikings must now play slightly about .500 football in the next 14 weeks to stamp a playoff ticket. A 7-6 record in the next 13 games would likely do the trick.

Football Outsiders = 75.6%

Change from Last Week = +10.3%

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

The New England Patriots just couldn’t do the Vikings any favors by dropping the Green Bay Packers — even though they possessed a reasonable opportunity. Instead, the Patriots ran the ball down the stretch of the game at Lambeau Field, and that will never knock off an Aaron Rodgers-led football team.

Still, the Vikings playoff odds rose substantially, and the team would now have to encounter a vast drop-off to fade from the playoff-projection map.

Sportsbooks = 77.5%

Change from Last Week = +6.1%

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason increased after Week 4, probably because the Saints were “right there” in the mix for playoff contention, too. Plus, Minnesota won on the road, and 7 of its remaining 13 games will occur at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -345.

PlayoffStatus.com = 66%

Change from Last Week = +11.0%

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings as honest-to-goodness playoff contenders. According to the site, the Vikings are the fifth most-likely franchise to reach the postseason. Minnesota even has better odds than the Packers, per PlayoffStatus.com. Green Bay is at 60%.

The Vikings take on the Bears in Week 5 at U.S. Bank Stadium.

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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).


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