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The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 2


The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 2
Sep 11, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

FiveThirty Eight = 73%

Change from Week 1 = +19.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.com

You blinked, and the Vikings became Super Bowl contenders. This occurred overnight from Sunday to Monday. That’s how important it was for the purple team to subdue the green franchise.

FiveThirtyEight now pegs Minnesota as the fourth most-likely team to win the championship. Holy smokes. Last week, the Vikings were 13th-likeliest.

The site is also still curiously high on the Indianapolis Colts, which is odd after Matt Ryan’s crew tied the underwhelming Houston Texans.

Change from Week 1 = +13.5%

Image Courtesy of FootballOutsiders.com

This climbed tremendously and is fruit of beating the Packers. The Vikings kicked the primary foes in the shins — and it mattered.

According to its math, Football Outsiders careened the Vikings playoff probability by 13.5% after a single game. Wowzers.

Sportsbooks = 69.2%

Change from Week 1 = 15.7%

Vikings Bitten by Dubious Sportsbook Odds after Round 1 of Draft
Kevin O’Connell

The Vikings playoff moneyline transferred from -115 to -225. Like FiveThirtyEight and Football Outsiders, the seesaw was rocking. Minnesota now has similar odds to reach the postseason as Kevin O’Connell’s former team, the Los Angeles Rams.

Stressing it again, the Vikings triumph in Week 1 over the Packers fundamentally changed the court of public opinion.

PlayoffStatus.com = 57%

Change from Week 1 = +14.0%

A Fresh Start Wildly Apparent in Vikings Opener
Sep 11, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings linebacker Danielle Hunter (99) sacks Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. Still, it ain’t nothing that the Vikings climbed from 43% last week to 57% heading into Week 2.

The Vikings take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 on Monday Night Football.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).


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