E Point Perfect

The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 15


The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 15
Dec 11, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 15, with a home contest with the Indianapolis Colts up next. In Week 14, Kevin O’Connell’s team lost its third game of 2022, losing to the upstart Detroit Lions, 34-23.

FiveThirty Eight = 99%

Change from Last Week = no change

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 14 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the fourth most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. Last week, FiveThirty pegged Minnesota as the NFL’s eighth-best team, too.

The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since 2017. The only way they could collapse would be by losing the next four games while Detroit won its final four.

Football Outsiders = 99.9%

Change from Last Week = No change

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

The loss to the Lions didn’t do much in terms of playoff probability, as the Vikings still need to win just one game for the NFC North crown.

The Vikings are going to playoffs, and now the focus is on the No. 1, 2, or 3 seeding — probably 2 or 3.

Sportsbooks = 99.0%

Change from Last Week = No change

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason stayed the same after Week 14, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North while Green Bay and Detroit fight for second place. The Lions actually have a somewhat realistic pathway to a wildcard in the NFC, but the division crown is an extreme longshot. They started winning too late in the season to make a run at the NFC North.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -10000.

PlayoffStatus.com = 99%

Change from Last Week = No change

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings sure-fire playoff participants. According to the site, the Vikings are the fourth most-likely franchise to reach the postseason behind the Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Colts in Week 15 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Minnesota is an early four-point favorite.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).


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