Top crypto analyst explains why inaction in bearish crypto market is worst
Chris Burniske, former lead crypto analyst at ARK Invest and current partner at Placeholder venture fund, once again shared his thoughts on the current crypto market opportunities. This time, the topic raised by the analyst was the return on investment of a garden-variety quality crypto asset, if it was purchased regardless of the current market conditions.
Giving a simplified version of the calculations, the expert summarized that, assuming a further return of the crypto market to a bull phase, any suitable crypto asset can give a result of 475% in a period of up to five years.
Simplified & theoretical expected-value of a garden-variety quality cryptoasset atm:
50% odds of 50% nuke in < 1 yr
50% odds of 10x in 3-5 yrs
= (.5 x -.5) + (.5 x 10) = 4.75x
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) September 2, 2022
Burniske concluded his reflections with the thesis that the biggest mistake is not wrong timing with investments, but complete inactivity in the crypto market. Nevertheless, there is an argument for every thesis, and followers were quick to respond to the analyst’s observations. Which, however, further expanded the field of study of the most important issue of crypto investments.
lol you must be LARPing
BTC 2015-17 bull: 100x
ETH 2015-17 bull: 1000x
BTC 18-21 bull: >20x
ETH 18-21 bull: >60x
SOL 19-21 bull: >200x
These are just a few. Many such opps in public crypto mkts with no special access; plenty of margin to eek out at least a 10x on some names.
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) September 4, 2022
Current state of crypto market
The market continues to wear participants out as it continues to trade sideways, giving both bulls and bears hope. Bitcoin is currently trading near important price points of $19,500-19,000.
For more than two months now, the main cryptocurrency of the market has been under the $23,200 price level, which has historically indicated the bottom of the cycle. So, perhaps the local denouement is near. It is worth waiting for the opening of the stock market and seeing the reaction of buyers.